Did the slate UMPC die and nobody notice?

On a recent episode the two MobileTechRounders (Kevin Tofel and Matt Miller) and I had an unplanned discussion about the dearth of slate UMPCs being produced currently and that discussion touched a nerve with some bloggers (Warner Crocker) involved in the mobile tech scene.  That's understandable as the death of the slate is not something that those of us who cover them want to hear but that doesn't change the way things are.  I felt I shouldn't leave the discussion as I did on the MoTR podcast but that I should get into the reasons why I stated that the slate is dead.  It's worthy of a good discussion for those who follow the UMPC world.

The slate UMPC is dead

I should make clear that my feeling that the slate is dead is referring more to the UMPC than the Tablet PC.  I do think that there are fewer slate Tablets today but it's pretty much been that way since the launch of the Tablet PC.  Slate Tablet PCs have been mostly aimed at the vertical market from day one and outside of geeky enthusiasts that hasn't changed much.  There are still slates being produced by those OEMs who are known for slates, Tabletkiosk, Motion, Fujitsu and NEC being the main producers of them.  These companies are doing fine selling the slates to vertical markets such as health care, the government and to casinos.  These are not the markets I am referring to when I talk about the death of the slate.  It's the mainstream market, the only one that can produce the size of demand that would make a real difference for those companies who produce them.

History of the UMPC

Microsoft recognized a while back that a lifestyle PC with a slate form could make a splash in the mainstream consumer market.  Remember the image of Bill Gates standing up and holding a mock-up of a six-inch slate PC he called the Haiku that wowed not only the audience but even mainstream media.  It was clear from that demonstration and discussion that this little slate was groundbreaking in that it was a totally new concept, and the statements that it would one day be available for just hundreds of dollars grabbed everyone's attention as that meant it could be a portable device that would appeal to the mainstream consumer.  Those were heady days and when the viral marketing campaign kicked off the "Origami" it was clear that the device would be a mainstream consumer "lifestyle" device, a small and thin slate that could be used for a lot of the functions that people need like surf the web, email, IM and the like.  Even though the Haiku and Origami were too far ahead of their time the excitement over such devices was genuine and widespread because it promised a device that was a radical change from the mobile computers that came before them such as the sub-notebook computer.  This was the atmosphere that launched what we know today as the UMPC, but the excitement has waned in my opinion because the devices as envisioned have changed.

Why do current UMPCs differ from that ultra-mobile slate form that got everyone's excitement ramped up?  We have to look at the UMPC since the first generation was launched to understand that. Without exception the first released UMPCs were all slates of one type or another with a touch-screen to be used so users could interact with the interface using fingers.  Sure they were much thicker, heavier and had worse battery life than the legendary Haiku but they were a good attempt to start the process to get there someday.  Unfortunately the market didn't understand the slate form and there was little if any attempt to show them that it could work for them.  The manufacturers of them listened to the clueless market and as the second generation UMPCs started to roll out it was apparent that the decision had been made that the slate form was not desirable any longer.  Every new UMPC released has a keyboard of some sort, from those awful thumb boards of the Q1 Ultra to the "full" keyboards of the Fujitsu u810.  It has been becoming clearer that the market wants keyboards and that's what they will get.  There are no second generation UMPCs (and I am referring to new models and not just refreshes) that do not have integrated keyboards.  Since UMPCs currently run the gamut in sizes, from 4-inch screens to 7-inch screens, that means that most of those keyboards are glorified thumb boards even though they have regular type keys.  There are a number of these UMPCs that look like little notebook computers, and that's nothing new.

UMPCs are not Haiku's

The undersized UMPC with the integrated keyboard fails the original concept of the Haiku/ Origami for a number of reasons.  First is the sub-standard keyboard I've mentioned and just as importantly is the thickness and weight penalty over slates.  Every UMPC I have seen with a swivel screen and keyboard is at least half an inch thicker than a slate would be given the same capabilities.  Thickness is a huge factor in usability and in the perception of the mainstream consumer.  Thick and clunky = no want.  The weight of convertibles is no doubt heavier than slate counterparts and that affects the comfort and hence the desirability to the consumer.  Thinner and lighter = device I will carry with me.  Since no slates are being produced then these convertibles are all the prospective consumer will see, and even if price points get down in the hundreds of dollars as originally predicted for the Origami I don't believe they will appeal to the mainstream market.  They are just little laptops after all, and the majority of consumers out there don't want one.  Slates can be used in far more venues than these little laptops, I know I have done it many times.  You won't pull out the little laptop standing in a big line at the DMV and tap out an email but you can ink one on a slate with no problem.  You can use a little slate without notice to take notes in a meeting but you won't pull out your clamshell and tap the keys to take notes as you will look silly quite frankly.  No one will want to do this.  I see a lot of people saying they have to have a keyboard because they can type faster than they can ink.  I don't dispute that but there are many times when typing is not possible and inking works fine.  It's about the mobility of the device, not the ink specifically.  That's what the original Haiku concept showed quite clearly that you could pull it out anywhere and write away.  That's what is important for UMPC-like devices.

Only slates can be lifestyle devices

I mentioned that UMPCs should be lifestyle devices because that's what got everyone so excited in the original viral marketing campaign.  The Haiku could be taken anywhere because it's a small, thin and light slate and pulled out whenever needed.  Need to look up something on the web?  Your Origami to the rescue.  Need to video chat with a friend?  Origami to the rescue.  The list of lifestyle activities can go on and on with the slate because you have it with you.  That's the big difference between the slate and the convertible UMPC which is too thick, clunky and heavy to take with you everywhere.  Or they are not fitting to be used as a clamshell in a lot of places so you just won't take it with you.  Sure you can swivel the screen around to a "slate" configuration but it's too thick and clunky to do well, especially with the poor inking that touch-screens are providing on virtually all UMPCs today.  So you don't bring it with you when you're heading to Junior's ball game.  True lifestyle devices like the iPhone are only such devices because you have them with you all the time.  Today's UMPCs fail that test miserably.

UMPCs are old technology

Today's clamshell convertible UMPCs are not something new.  How can I say that with a straight face?  At their base level and primary usage configuration they are just little laptops and that is nothing new.  Japan has been producing little laptops for over ten years, you may remember the Toshiba Libretto and the IBM PC110 which were revolutionary in their day ten years ago as little Windows-based laptops that were tiny and ultra-portable.  Compare them carefully with the UMPCs being produced currently and you'll find little difference.  Sure the hardware has evolved so the UMPCs are more powerful than those older devices but that's about it.  The Japanese devices sold well in their native country but not anywhere else because they were expensive and quite frankly regular people didn't want nor need one.  That's the same problem that clamshell UMPCs face today, most people don't need one.  You have probably seen articles on the web or comments in forums that say basically that, or ask the question "why do I need one"?  Truth is regular consumers don't need one for all the reasons covered in this article.  A little slate however is a different situation.  Sure UMPCs today often have swivel screens and touch-screens for interaction with the PC but like I've said regular people don't care.  The slate device done properly could change all that.

What's coming down the road?

The look into the future is what concerns me, and why I am sharing this with you.  We see no slate UMPCs coming up from anyone.  I have tried to verify an upcoming slate UMPC with all the major players in this space and can't find a single one making a slate.  Everything that is being worked on in the UMPC space has a keyboard of some kind, so the emphasis is on keyboard entry and not slate functionality.  That is very sad.  This will continue with the appearance of low-cost laptops like the Asus EEE PC and the OLPC.  They are good efforts to drive the cost of the device down to mainstream consumer levels but be aware these aren't the lifestyle device that the slate UMPC could become.  These devices have a totally different usage scenario and this will be overlooked by OEMs who just want to sell a lot of devices.  Who can blame them for that?  This is the reason why the slate device of our dreams is getting pushed further from the development plans of those who play in the mobile PC sandbox and that's not good for the Haiku.  There is likely only one company who might dabble in the lifestyle slate category and you know who that is.  Apple of course, but I'm not going to get into that again.

Conclusion

When the Origami/ Haiku device was pitched in the beginning it excited me as a great platform for the slate PC that is always with you.  A true lifestyle device that becomes such an integral part of the consumer's day that it becomes as second nature to use as a cell phone.  I am convinced that properly done a slate like the Haiku could become such a lifestyle device and reach the hundreds of millions of mainstream consumers globally.  I believe it would be a great thing for those consumers too, adding benefits that improve the life of those consumers.  This is why the lack of development being done in this area by UMPC producers is upsetting to me and makes me very sad.  We'll never get there with no one working in this area and the number of clunky devices appearing with keyboards shows my concern is well-founded.  I am firmly convinced that convertible UMPC devices will never penetrate the mainstream consumer market and that is not only disturbing but a huge limiter in the potential market size for mobile devices.  While the standard players are churning out cookie-cutter mini-laptops someone like Apple will come along and steal everyone's thunder.  That's not a bad thing as long as it gets done, I believe that a slate mobile PC properly done is revolutionary so let's just get it done.  Drop the keyboards and get back on the Haiku track.

Comments

[jkkmobile]

..ok... if slates are sooo good, why aren't u using one yourself?

[Scott F Williams]

So what about the hybrid like the new HTC Shift. I was ready to leap on this one, but the small hard drive and low res screen is dissapointing. Price point when it is launched in the US may overcome that. The Vye S37 looks promissing, but high price and poor ergo design compared to the Shift.

I guess for me the ideal would be a 7 inch Iphone form factor but running Vista. Apple has done amzing Ergo with the hardware, I wish a PC OEm would step up with a 5" or 7" screen version.

[JC]

Slates UMPCs might have gotten more traction if they ran an operating system which had a touch optimized interface, and there were lots of touch optimized software available at launch.

Otherwise, UMPCs are running software which assume the user has a keyboard and a mouse. Is it any wonder that people wanted a keyboard and some sort of pointing device?

[James Kendrick]

jkkmobile, I don't use a UMPC for my daily machine, I use a full Tablet PC. This article is about the death of the slate UMPC. I'll also bet that my HP 2710p convertible Tablet PC is thinner in slate mode than almost every convertible UMPC on the market.

Scott, hybrids are a different beast but still aren't pure slates like I'm covering in this article.

JC, Vista is a great OS for Tablet functionality and can be run great with fingers or the pen. You don't need a keyboard at all, contrary to what you might think.

[Tig]

the Q1Ultra is a slate, doent matter if they added a thumbpad because it didnt change the form factor (just filled in free space with buttons)as it's not a slider or a convertible.

so no matter how you twist it to suite your negative theory, the Q1U is just as much a slate as the original UMPC's. even if you try to say "they are now emphasizing typing over inking" (which isnt true) it still WOULDNT matter because the actual form factor is that of a slate.

[Warner Crocker]

This is a great discussion. One we all should have been having awhile ago.

Some Blogger.

[Rodfather]

This is pretty much the same situation as 'full' sized slates. The numbers just aren't there. So slates end up reserved for vertical markets while everyone else buys convertibles.
For the UMPC, it's a combo of the same situation and emerging technologies.
After the first gen, people realized they were missing a keyboard. So most of the 2nd gen came with some sort of alternative keyboard entry. With the help of Menlow, MID's, the bulkiness of Vista, 5" devices are coming out which reduces the effectiveness of touch/inking further.
Now it's about OLPC clones filling in the small form factor market using UMPC parts to provide cheap subnotebooks. The numbers are there so slates will end up in the backroom further.

The only new slate UMPC's are the Samsung Q1U and Amtek T770. Asus is coming out with an 'upgraded' R2H but keeps the same design.

I mentioned a while ago UMPC's as we know now are dead, but it's not only because people don't like slates.

[KillBill]

I'm inking or thumbin' just fine with my slate/slider UMPC, an OQO 02. best of both worlds at around 1" thick & 1 lb.

[Ti]

uummmmmmmmm, what about the highly anticipated upcoming US700 & US701? they are both slates as well (US702 is convertible).

also the new Jensen nvx3000 is a slate.

well James, for someone who researched so well & found no upcoming slates, there have already been 4 mentioned in this thread alone.

[James Kendrick]

Ti, the US 700 & 701 are indeed very nice looking and promising slates. These appeared in January of this year and still haven't shown up anywhere for sale or with any real details, that I could find. They are supposedly going to be put out by an unknown Asian company and it's not known if when they do get released if where they will be available or if they will support inking well. A slate without inking is near useless as mainstream consumers will not want to carry a keyboard with it. The Jensen looks really cool too but no word on whether it's a concept or will ever ship. A trip to the Jensen web site just now has all of the info about the nvx3000 deleted or at least unavailable. Same comments about the inking apply here.

This article is not intended to be negative although some are interpreting it that way. It is simply a statement of the way things are now, like it or not.

[Ricky B.]

Good bye, slate UMPC. Hello, slate MID.

Although, my favorite hand-held 'slate' is the N800, not part of Intel's new MID push. I think I'll like the N810 even more. :)

[Mike Cane]

Hmmmm... well, aside from Apple, there's Intel's MID thingie.

Look, just face it, the current MS UI is crap, period. It works with desktop and mouse just fine (thank you, Apple!), but for just-screen, forget it. All MS has done with UMPC is, as the popular saying goes, put lipstick on a pig. It still snorts when you poke it too hard.

And if UMPCs are dying, well, blame Vista. I just fondled a Fuji U810 at J&R. Vista is just a horror on that.

Give the UMPC the UI it requires and people will take interest. Apple just didn't transplant desktop OS X onto the iPhone. MS has had ADD with UMPC, as far as I'm concerned.

[flyer]

"It is simply a statement of the way things are now, like it or not."

making generalized statements doesnt make you correct. we have brought facts, ignoring them wont make it go away.

do your fact checking!! both the US700's have been announced for 1st quarter 08. the Jensen HAS just recently started going on sale & can be found at several retailers.

i dont know why anybody waste time proving you wrong, you will always ignore the facts people bring up. whats next, if the color is wrong does that make it not count also?

[zunq]

I think that a physical input method like a keypad is integral in the success of UMPC devices in general including slates. A thumbpad imo is a superior input method over inking especially on a touchscreen device but that doesn't mean that slates have become useless. I agree that a touchscreen is very useful for navigation and drawing figures which cannot be done with keypads, but denying the user a physical key input is not going to go well with the mainstream. It's all about progression, you can't all at once expect the masses to adapt to "inking" and virtual keyboards of slates, you have to give them the secondary option that is a thumbpad or keyboard because that is what they are traditionally accustomed to.
My dream slate convertible would be like this MID which I'm dying to see released:
http://img136.imageshack.us/img136/8936/mid2am5.jpg
And it will be successful if it costs a third of an OQO 02.

[Chris K]

The problem is, you can't have your cake and eat it too. You've stated in the past that you want a high-resolution display on your portable system.

You've also stated that you can't handle too high of a resolution on a small screen, such as the 4.5" 1024x600 display on the Sony UX.

How does this tie in? It's the TIP. Here I am, with this tiny keyboardless device, and an input system that obliterates my ability to read anything. In landscape mode, I only have a few lines of output. In portrait mode, my screen is too narrow. I lose both ways, because the resolution is too low. You can't bump it up, and you can't ditch Windows and still have a Haiku/Origami/whatever slate UMPC within Microsoft's definition.

If you want it to work, you need to be able to write anywhere. You need context-sensitive input, and hell, you need a GUI metaphor that understands that you're stuck on a touchscreen with no sense of an eraser, or a side button. You need a system that can read a stylus *or* a two-finger setup. You need the ability to right/left/middle click. You need the UI to work BEST with a stylus, not just to work.

Take a video player, for example. If you want touchscreen controls, you bring them up *when you touch the screen.* You display a few options, and swap button sets as needed. Want to tweak the balance? Pop up the balance slider. Volume? Volume slider. Brightness? Jog dial? The list goes on.

For a word processor/notepad, I should have the option for my ink to automatically convert to text. My web browser should scroll when I touch the screen, and zoom when I might be clicking on a link. If you take away my keyboard and mouse, you have to give me something *better,* not something almost good enough. Until I can exit standby, tap on an email ONCE, write a reply without correcting, or tapping "Insert" every few words, and send it out without having to click on a million and one tiny buttons/scrollbars on a system with too much chrome and not enough workable space, the UMPC slate just isn't going anywhere.

[Mark Polino]

James,

I have to agree. I actually thought slates were dead, (or near dead stuck in verticals) before the UMPC. I thought that the initial UMPC's actually gave full sized slates some hope. People like the UMPC idea but needed something bigger. Motion and TabletKiosk both released nice slates around the initial UMPC wave. Then as the UMPC hype moved toward keyboards, the resurrection of the slate seemed to die too.

One of the things the Q1 has really shown me is that I need access to a keyboard for some work. I don't need it permanently attached.

Mark

[wls]

I certainly agree with the article as I have been saying something like that here and other places for a while now. Those mini-me laptops are a dead end for UMPC's and show a lack of imagination and creativity. MSoft has dropped the ball after giving us the vision. What they needed to do was give us a compact, fast, touch centric operating system. You can call it Windows Express or Origami but it was their responsibility to supply it. The beaucracy won out however and they just gave us Vista..
then as you point out Apple comes out with the vision with a touch interface but has yet to deliver on the hardware. Apple still has the chance to deliver on something close to Origami
and I hope they do so soon. Whether you are an Apple fan or not you have to admit they know how to implement a vision.

[NW]

Maybe even UMPCs are dead. Vista & the new processors haven't improved performance or battery life.

UMPCs were originally meant to be reference devices - web surfing, doc reading, info access - for which you don't need a keyboard. But they aren't cheap enough. For the sort of price you have to pay for an UMPC you want more, you expect it to replace a laptop & run productivity applications. For this sort of application a keyboard is necessary.

I would love to buy a slate UMPC for reference work and for note taking at meetings using inking, but apart from the R2H all have light touch screens and aren't suitable for inking.

Hard to imagine that in the 'second generation' of UMPCs I effectively have a choice of one.

Would a slate meet my needs? - I'll never know because none of the stores near me (UK) have atablet PC, never mind a UMPC for me to try out.

[Stephen Feger]

I swear I would buy a Haiku right now if the thing simply came with a dual mode (active and passive) digitizer like the one on the Lenovo X61. I do not want to write on a passive digitizer. The hard screen on a P1610 still loses too much functionality compared to an active digitizer and an active digitizer is useless to me when I was to navigate around the screen and interact with the UI with my finger. So we need the dual-mode digitizers.

In fact, I would be VERY content if they took a Q1U, and gave it a dual-mode digitizer. I would use the zero weight keyboard when I needed to do intermediate level typing (that keyboard is only good for shortcuts and one word typing!) and a BT keyboard for anything more involved than that.

UMPCs will fail because they are trying to make them into mini-laptops. They're not and they never will be. The inherent compromise of size, weight, battery and processing power makes that impractical.

Instead, they should focus on a role and market them as such. For me, I would market it as a digital notebook that excels at sorting out all your notes for every student or executive out there and bundle it with OneNote 2007. I would show them how it can have all their music and video and last for hours and hours. But the dual-mode digitizer is key. It can be an entertainment device with the passive digitizer or it can be a productivity device with an active digitizer. It just can't be both right now.

Until then, I have my Q1U with 2GB and the zero weight keyboard. That's as close as I can get.

[Steve Paine]

This is a bit of a silly post considering that 'origami' UMPCs (slates) never really lived in the consumer market anyway. Its hard to say that they died!

Steve

[James Kendrick]

Silly, Steve? That's a bit harsh. The article is clearly focusing on the lack of effort being poured into the advancement of slate UMPCs which is a direct change from the original Haiku/ Origami vision as stated. I don't find that silly at all.

[Opus]

Bringing this subject up has been invaluable in shining the light back on the UMPC. Unfortunately some people have got so close to the issue that they forgot some of the original intent.

Mids & lack of full Vista support is a cop out. Microsoft, Intel, and upcoming UMPC manufacturers promised a fully mobile & lightweight PC capable of running any software under Winows XP and eventually Vista. Remember that?

I don't expect the 1st couple of attempts to meet all the goals, but from what a lot of us 1st & 2nd early adopters have experienced, it is pretty darn close.

I predict all the UMPC wannabees will help promote the true UMPC form factor, but in the end consumers that buy in to these, even the iPhoney, will get their thrill then after awhile will start wanting to run full blown Windows or OSX software on them. Well guess what, that is what real UMPC's are supposed to do from the get go, so they have not died, they are in waiting.

[TateJ]

I still think the biggest problem has been poor marketing. How long have tablet pcs been around? Still, most people I know or meet have never heard of them. I have only seen a Tablet PC in a store one time and I stumbled upon it by accident. No one in the store could demo it for me.

UMPCs are suffering the same problem. Outside of the tech crowd that read blogs like this one, nobody has heard of UMPCs either slate or keyboard equipped. I pull out my M1400 or my Q1 and people don't know what they are.

Before the OEMs give up on the slate design, I'd like to see a more intensive marketing effort.

Just my 2 cents worth.

[Woadan]

Wow! Lots of posts, and that's good, as we need to have a discussion on this part of mobility.

I'm not sure that I have ever been sure, at least since the viral campaign for Origami in February 2006, exactly whom MS and the makers were targeting. I thought the viral campaign firmly planted a flag in the consumer market. But since the devices have appeared on the market, they seem to have been all over the map.

With that in mind, I'm not sure that more marketing will help until the movers and shakers decide what the market is. And I'm not saying there aren't multiple markets. However many actual markets there may be, I think neither Microsoft nor the makers have properly identified them.

Woadan

[Kiwi gadgeteer]

It's not over till it's over! The key factor for something to succeed it has to be affordable and umpcs have totally failed on this. Keep it away from Microsoft and there might be a chance! Salvation is at hand with Asus and the Eee PC. While it's not a umpc of course the success of this well priced concept will lead to affordable slate and convertable tablet type PCs. My HTC Advantage is up for sale. I've just got my Asus Eee PC today and it is fabulous. Similar to the excitment of owning an early Palm Pilot - this is something special indeed. Sometime not to far away I'll be queuing up to buy the new US $300 slate when it finally arrives. I'm dreaming of Apple design (OK it will cost a bit more) on such a device - what a fabulous thought.