Will WiMAX impact the market for EV-DO Rev. A?

On the upcoming episode of the MobileTechRoundup podcast (#62, due out shortly), James, Matt and I chat about the recent WiMAX announcement from Sprint. We're all excited by the news and see a huge impact on the mobile landscape when WiMAX becomes a reality. One nagging question was eating at me though, so I thought to share it with you here for your thoughts.

It wasn't that long ago that Sprint announced EV-DO Rev. A, which will bring faster upload and download wireless speeds; Verizon is also on the bandwagon. If memory serves, we'll see Rev. A begin to make an impact late this year or early in 2007. With the WiMAX announcement indicating wireless coverage of over 100 million people in 2008, I have to wonder what does this do to for the potential EV-DO Rev. A market?

Will people be apt to upgrade their EV-DO devices to Rev. A knowing that an even faster service looms around the corner? Will consumers generally bypass Rev. A; will OEMs in terms of integrated radios for their mobile devices? Can the wireless carriers afford to boost a short lifecycled Rev. A market with heavy product subsidies? What do you think?

-kct

Comments

[Scotty]

WiMax and EvDO Rev A are two different markets.

EvDO is internet for a cell phone/computer mobile users. Rev A just lets the carriers service more data customers per cell rather than have to get out the cleaver and terminate "abusive" data customers to keep things working smoothly.

WiMax is the replacement for T1's used by businesses to connect to the internet. They may also pick up a few high end consumers (using/or wishing they could use high end DSL circuits) as well.

[Mark Sumimoto (Sumocat)]

Scotty, I don't think you're considering the players in this story. Sprint, Intel, Samsung, and Motorola don't add up to an enterprise-only market. Furthermore, the press release clearly describes the consumer market as a target.

Personally, I don't see this making a dent in EV-DO right now. People who want high-speed now will continue to sign up. Furthermore, the press release points out that their WiMax devices will be compatible with Sprint's existing EV-DO system. If anything, this encourages signing up for Sprint's EV-DO service since they presumably will offer to upgrade customers to the new WiMax network.

That said, I'm already wary of this news. The press release only indicates connectivity using WiMax chipsets, as opposed to common wifi as can be done in the massive wifi cloud in Oregon (http://www.wired.com/news/wireless/0,1382,69234,00.html). To me, that's an opportunity missed for the sake of locking customers into specific devices. Might be necessary, but it dampens my enthusiasm.